Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.378679 23.717071 25.132722 26.748323 28.549441 30.505522 32.804034
2026-01-25 20.120452 21.933528 23.948706 26.378061 29.259992 32.613022 36.876376
2026-02-01 18.660283 20.686751 23.007880 25.904205 29.482705 33.847218 39.722115
2026-02-08 17.242080 19.331889 21.775021 24.897588 28.869387 33.885025 40.938022
2026-02-15 16.809191 19.086758 21.811695 25.392211 30.105724 36.315468 45.543955
2026-02-22 16.339819 18.749731 21.689396 25.644520 31.010178 38.354407 49.851093
2026-03-01 15.531175 17.939733 20.913942 24.976764 30.598018 38.491534 51.300828
2026-03-08 14.381054 16.649228 19.462032 23.324866 28.706752 36.333795 48.874398
2026-03-15 14.052832 16.384119 19.313506 23.403770 29.229003 37.730221 52.321368
2026-03-22 13.792930 16.190873 19.242854 23.574536 29.880685 39.364397 56.398230
2026-03-29 13.448485 15.871396 18.986596 23.466299 30.105538 40.342174 59.457456
2026-04-05 13.272666 15.763163 19.003971 23.737984 30.908176 42.310625 64.691322
2026-04-12 12.937502 15.484056 18.847085 23.856527 31.655716 44.567645 71.687853
2026-04-19 12.458202 14.999306 18.393777 23.528269 31.700284 45.684452 76.821818
2026-04-26 12.007845 14.529182 17.929829 23.141233 31.594930 46.489792 81.484009
2026-05-03 11.452389 13.893293 17.202180 22.308179 30.675768 45.655372 81.926531
2026-05-10 11.320515 13.832321 17.285382 22.717877 31.881466 49.060236 94.637305
2026-05-17 11.138904 13.692538 17.244804 22.926426 32.754487 51.958917 107.583980
2026-05-24 10.754230 13.253164 16.746718 22.373879 32.214051 51.797040 110.867791
2026-05-31 10.157220 12.498865 15.762957 20.998831 30.096416 48.007227 100.747817
2026-06-07 9.993554 12.353427 15.672554 21.064779 30.620852 50.077287 111.922086
2026-06-14 9.860317 12.245843 15.632309 21.207413 31.296518 52.602529 126.578970
2026-06-21 9.673094 12.054486 15.458189 21.117022 31.519823 54.113803 138.417787